Vehicle counts tell you what is parked in a market. They do not tell you how many tires those vehicles will buy — and nobody publishes the conversion between the two. We built it, and we validate it against published national volume.
of replacement tire buyers decide on a brand before they walk into a store.
of those decisions are overturned at the counter.
of dealers say manufacturer incentives influence what they recommend.
The industry spends billions influencing the first decision and almost nothing on the second. Every dollar of margin in this business is decided in the ninety seconds after a customer walks in. TreadSignal is built entirely on the second decision.
Sources: AutoPacific, 2024; Babcox Media dealer surveys
We start with vehicle registration data — every vehicle in operation, down to the ZIP code — and map it forward through replacement cycles. The output is a stocking list, not a report: which sizes, which tiers, which quantities, which warehouse.
Our pricing engine builds tiered offer sets from live competitive data and category behavior, so the counter presents options that convert instead of options that discount. In production deployment it has produced measurable lift in ticket performance.
Replenishment systems learn demand from sales history, so a stockout teaches them the SKU is dead. We supply a demand signal from outside the warehouse, which cannot be corrupted that way — and catches the fitments a dead-stock rule would liquidate right before they move.
Where your fitments are aging out, which markets are converting to your tier, and what a competitor's share gain actually came from.
Warehouse-level stocking lists built from the vehicles actually registered in that warehouse's service radius — not a national average applied locally.
Counter-level offer construction, margin performance by tier, and demand forecasting that tells you what to order before you run out.
Why national stocking models fail at the warehouse level, and what the coverage curve actually looks like state by state.
Read →The brand decision made at home is not the brand decision made at the counter. The gap between them is where the margin lives.
Read →33 sizes reach 80% of a market. Reaching 95% takes roughly 140. What the tail actually costs.
Read →TreadSignal was founded by Jeffrey Riddle. The problem it solves is one he has been working on, in one form or another, since the 1980s.
No manufacturer ownership, no distributor ownership, no channel position. TreadSignal takes no stake in the brands its recommendations name.
Every model here was built by someone who has run stores, sold wholesale, and sat on the buying side. The arithmetic is checked against how the business actually works.
Our demand model reconciles to published national volume, and we publish the variance. A method that only reports its successes cannot be evaluated.
Send us a market — a metro, a state, a warehouse service area — and we will return a demand and pricing sample built from live data. No cost, no obligation.